Horror Movies and Recessions
I was reading Robert Prechter's book called Conquer the Crash and here are some observation that I learned from Robert Prechter who popularized the Elliot Wave Theory.
For example, did you know that during a recession or a depression, the top grossing movies are usually horror movies? There's also a lot more horror movies in times of depression, especially at the bottom. Possibly due to Hollywood mirroring the moods of the population.
During the great depression of 1929 to late 1930s. The top grossing movie were Frankenstein (1931) and King Kong (1933).
During the recession between 1970 to 1980. The top films were The Exorcist (1973), Jaws (1975), Jaws 2 (1978). The bottom of the market during that decade was Sept 23, 1974. When the market started recovering or when the population has had enough of the gloom and doom, the top movies were Saturday Night Fever (1977), Star Wars (1977), Grease (1978), Superman (1978) and Moonraker (1979).
During the 1980s boom with Reaganomics, no horror or suspense movies were top grossers. We have ET, Return of the Jedi, The Empire Strikes Back, Indiana Jones, Rain Man, Raiders of the Lost Ark, Batman, Back to The Future, Who Framed Roger Rabbit and Top Gun.
How about as recent as the 1990s?
From 1991 to 1997 there were no horror/suspense movies that were top grossers. Interestingly enough, during the Asian Crisis, the top movie was Armageddon (1998) and the Sixth Sense in (1999).
I haven't seen the same result in this decade yet. But you do see lot more horror movies coming out even though they were not top grossers. But if we go by the gross earnings of the Saw movie franchise, we can see it grossed $55M in the US in 2004 and $87M in 2005 for Saw II. If you remember, 2000 was when the Internet bubble popped and bottomed on Oct 21, 2002. The market went up from there.
So in 2006 when the market was in full recovery, Saw III only made $80M. Still high, but in 2007 when the good times were back again, Saw IV only made $63M, Saw V in 2008 made $56M and Saw VI made $27M.
The big movie being promoted in 2009 was the movie 2012 which is about the end of the world which came out Nov 13 (Friday the 13th by the way). It grossed $163M in the US.
While the top movie in 2009 is Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen which grossed $402M. $163M for 2012 is not bad.
It's also interesting to note how much horror movies made in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010.
In 2007, horror and suspense movies grossed a total of $1.285B.
In 2008, horror and suspense movies grossed a total of $1.073B.
In 2009, horror and suspense movies grossed a total of $1.549B.
In 2010, horror and suspense movies grossed a total of $1.435B.
If you remember, in 2007 was the height of the stock market. In 2008, the news of the financial crisis was just starting to come out. People were still unaware how bad things were.
2009 was the height of the financial crisis, that's when there were massive job loss and GM filed for bankruptcy on June 1, 2009. 2010, AIG got bailed out by the US government, unemployment went above 10%, Bernie Madoff and Sarah Palin resigns as governor of Alaska.
In 2010 we saw several massive earthquakes in Haiti, Chile and China. The BP Deepwater Horizon exploded and created the largest oil spill in history. IMF agreed to a €110B bailout of Greece and €85B bailout of Ireland.
While I'm extrapolating a lot of these events and correlations. It is interesting to note how the sentiment of the population can be related to movies and the general economy.
While this is not the only indicator of a bear market or the end of a bear market. It is interesting to know that it may be one of the ways to find out if we are really in a recession or coming out of a recession.
For example, did you know that during a recession or a depression, the top grossing movies are usually horror movies? There's also a lot more horror movies in times of depression, especially at the bottom. Possibly due to Hollywood mirroring the moods of the population.
During the great depression of 1929 to late 1930s. The top grossing movie were Frankenstein (1931) and King Kong (1933).
During the recession between 1970 to 1980. The top films were The Exorcist (1973), Jaws (1975), Jaws 2 (1978). The bottom of the market during that decade was Sept 23, 1974. When the market started recovering or when the population has had enough of the gloom and doom, the top movies were Saturday Night Fever (1977), Star Wars (1977), Grease (1978), Superman (1978) and Moonraker (1979).
During the 1980s boom with Reaganomics, no horror or suspense movies were top grossers. We have ET, Return of the Jedi, The Empire Strikes Back, Indiana Jones, Rain Man, Raiders of the Lost Ark, Batman, Back to The Future, Who Framed Roger Rabbit and Top Gun.
How about as recent as the 1990s?
From 1991 to 1997 there were no horror/suspense movies that were top grossers. Interestingly enough, during the Asian Crisis, the top movie was Armageddon (1998) and the Sixth Sense in (1999).
I haven't seen the same result in this decade yet. But you do see lot more horror movies coming out even though they were not top grossers. But if we go by the gross earnings of the Saw movie franchise, we can see it grossed $55M in the US in 2004 and $87M in 2005 for Saw II. If you remember, 2000 was when the Internet bubble popped and bottomed on Oct 21, 2002. The market went up from there.
So in 2006 when the market was in full recovery, Saw III only made $80M. Still high, but in 2007 when the good times were back again, Saw IV only made $63M, Saw V in 2008 made $56M and Saw VI made $27M.
The big movie being promoted in 2009 was the movie 2012 which is about the end of the world which came out Nov 13 (Friday the 13th by the way). It grossed $163M in the US.
While the top movie in 2009 is Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen which grossed $402M. $163M for 2012 is not bad.
It's also interesting to note how much horror movies made in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010.
In 2007, horror and suspense movies grossed a total of $1.285B.
In 2008, horror and suspense movies grossed a total of $1.073B.
In 2009, horror and suspense movies grossed a total of $1.549B.
In 2010, horror and suspense movies grossed a total of $1.435B.
If you remember, in 2007 was the height of the stock market. In 2008, the news of the financial crisis was just starting to come out. People were still unaware how bad things were.
2009 was the height of the financial crisis, that's when there were massive job loss and GM filed for bankruptcy on June 1, 2009. 2010, AIG got bailed out by the US government, unemployment went above 10%, Bernie Madoff and Sarah Palin resigns as governor of Alaska.
In 2010 we saw several massive earthquakes in Haiti, Chile and China. The BP Deepwater Horizon exploded and created the largest oil spill in history. IMF agreed to a €110B bailout of Greece and €85B bailout of Ireland.
While I'm extrapolating a lot of these events and correlations. It is interesting to note how the sentiment of the population can be related to movies and the general economy.
While this is not the only indicator of a bear market or the end of a bear market. It is interesting to know that it may be one of the ways to find out if we are really in a recession or coming out of a recession.
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